Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Nationals Have Bright Future, but will This Season be Bright???



The Washington Nationals come into this years season with multiple questions at pitching and will feature a batting lineup that some say will be a little bit weaker than last year with letting Adam Dunn.  The Nats went through a some what interesting off season.  First was then GM Stan Kasten leaving and Mike Rizzo taking over in that same position.  For those of you that don't remember Stan Kasten was the GM that built the Atlanta Braves into what they were in the 1990's.  That was very encouraging to me as Kasten looked like he was going to do the same here in DC.  Kasten stepping down is a huge red flag to me, because that means that Kasten may have not been getting along with the Learners.  Kasten isn't the type of GM that will step down right in the middle of the rebuilding process and with future looking bright.  This tells me that the Learners may be wanting hands on in alot of the player personal decisions the team makes a la Dan Snyder.  Which brings me to Adam Dunn.

Why would let the team leader in homers and RBI walk away??? Granted he is hot and cold, strikesout a lot, and his getting old in age.  But Adam Dunn could've stuck around here in DC and help mentor this young team.  A lot of the players last year said that Dunn was the reason why the team was so close and was basically like a family last year.  Why would you want to mess comradery up like that?  From experience and from watching pro teams, the teams that tend to be most successful are close to each other in the locker room, no homo. It's going to be interesting to see if the Nats still have that comradery this year with Dunn gone.

The other big off season story was the signing of Jayson Werth to a 7 year $126 million contract.  Its good that the Learners are willing to spend money, but like Dan Snyder money was spent in the wrong place.  What happened to the "we don't want to sign Adam Dunn to a long term contract because of his age" type of thinking.  Werth and Dunn are the same age 31.  I can easily see Werth possibly turning into a Hayneworth situation because of all of the money the Nats are going to pay him, but time will tell.

Ok, enough of my bitching from the offseason, the team is what it is.  On to what to expect from this year's team.

Pitching:
With Stephen Strasburg not expected to be back from Tommy John surgery until August or September, there is alot of questions with this pitching staff from starters to closers.  Here's what the projected starting rotation will be with the players stats from last year

1 RHP Livan Hernandez 10-12, 3.66 ERA, 114 SO, 16 HR
2 LHP John Lannan 8-8, 4.65 ERA, 71 SO, 14 HR
3 RHP Jordan Zimmermann 1-2, 4.94 ERA, 27 SO, 8 HR
4 RHP Jason Marquis 2-9, 6.60 ERA, 31 SO, 9 HR
5 LHP Tom Gorzelanny 7-9, 4.09 ERA, 119 SO, 11 HR, (with Chicago Cubs)







Livan Hernandez is 36 so its going to be a question of how long his body can hold up and if his arm can once again take the bumps and bruises of a long baseball season. Especially since Hernandez tends to pitch a lot of innings, I'm not sure if his body can take that any more.  Hernandez is good to have around though to mentor the young pitchers.  John Lannan is at the age were he should be reaching the prime of his career so with enough bullpen support Lannan has the potential to win 10 games, but will most likely be around 8 wins again this year.  Joradan Zimmermann is in the same boat as Laannan, but I think still has some growing to do, Zimmerman could also have a breakout year.  Jason Marquis only started 13 games last year due to injury and it showed, if some of the young arms begin to blossom in AAA ball I wont be surprised if one will take Marquis' spot in the rotation later in the year.  Tom Grozelanny had a decent season with the Cubs last year and his bascially in the down of his career from what I think.  Grozelanny will also Hernandez in mentoring Lannan and Zimmerman.

Bullpen and Closers:

SU LHP Tyler Clippard
SU LHP Todd Coffey
MI RHP Chad Gaudin
MI RHP Brian Broderick
MI RHP Doug Slaten     
Closer: Drew Storen



Closer: Doug Slaten


Drew Storen will be the main closer and Tyler Clippard will be the main set up man.  Storen stepped into the closer in the middle of last year and went 4-4 with 5 saves.  Storen is supposed to be the Nats closer for a long time to come and looked pretty good last year and will most likely build from what he accomplished last year.  Clippard went 11-8 with 1 save last year.  Clippard is also a young pitcher that the Nats have high hopes for.  Clippards high amount of wins is due to the teams biggest weakness, the middle relievers.  The middle relievers is alot of the reason why the Nationals lost alot leads and games last year and will be there alchies heel again this year.   






Bating: 

1 SS Ian Desmond .269, 10 HR, 65 RBI, 109 SO
2 RF Jayson Werth .296, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 147 SO (with Philly)
3 3B Ryan Zimmerman .307, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 98 SO
4 1B Adam LaRoche .261, 25 HR, 100 RBI 172 SO (with Arizona Diamondbacks)
5 LF Michael Morse .289, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 64 SO
6 CF Rick Ankiel .232 6 HR, 24 RBI, 71 SO (with Atlanta and Kansas City)
7 2B Danny Espinosa .214, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 30 SO
8 C Ivan Rodriguez .266, 4 HR, 49 RBI, 66 SO


9 Picther 





 You know what you are going get in Ryan Zimmerman, he's a .300 batting average guy and should get 20 home runs every year.  Ian Desmond is still developing and should continue to make strides.  Jayson Werth is basically going to be Adam Dunn's replacement we'll see if the money goes to his head.  LaRoche is in his 30's butt still seems to be producing which is why he's perfect for the clean up spot. Rick Ankiel, the pitcher turned fielder has bounced around alot since leaving St. Louis a few years ago and if he's having a good year don't be surprised if he becomes trade bait at the deadline.  Overall the offense should be were it was last year maybe even better.  Zimmerman would be easily considered a star in the league if the teams was in the playoffs and Werth does have that veteran leadership for the offenses.   

Season Prediction:
Unfortunately, it looks like to be another long year down on South Capitol street.  The young pitching and the lack of a solid bullpen will cost the Nats again as it has in the past, while the offense will produce runs once again.  The Nats are also a victim of being in a good division with the Phillies and Braves.  If the Nats were in the NL central or AL west they could possibly be near the .500 mark, but they are not and have to keep on working towards the future if they are to compete with the Phillies and Braves.  Nats could possibly top the Marlins for 4th place in the division, but I think it'll be a "good" battle to between the Nats and Marlins for 4th and 5th.   

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