Buck Has the Boys in Line, but Will it be Enough to Compete?

In case if you haven't heard, Buck Showalter is the new manager of the Baltimore Orioles and went 34-23 when he took over the O's last August and a .596 winning percentage which was good enough for the best record  in the AL from the the time Buck took over till the end of the season.  Now the question is can Buck push the O's to a winning record for the whole season?  Alot of the self proclaimed baseball experts I talk to say a manager doesn't affect a baseball team that much.  Well I think taking a team that was in the bottom of the division around a .300 winning percentage to a winning record in a matter of two months means that the manager has an effect on the team.  Now I'm not saying that Buck on his own is going to turn Jeremy Guthrie into a Cy Young winner, though that would be awesome, nor is he going to turn Adam Jones into a batting title winner, also would be awesome, but I think what needs to be taken away from last season is that players want to play for Buck and are motivated to play well now.  I don't think you are going to see Adam Jones half assing it down the first base line or on a ball played to center field, because Jones knows that if he does that now there's going to be a foot up his ass from Buck.  Also with Buck, the organization now has a sense of direction to go in, for the past 13 years I've never been sure what direction the organization was going in besides losing.

Offseason: This past offseason the O's added some pop to there lineup with the additions of Mark Reynolds, Derek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero.  Going into the start of the 2010 season the 13 position players on the opening day roster had a combined 896 career homeruns. This year the 13 position players on the roster have a combined 1,349 homers.  My only compliant about this offseason was the O's did not get a pitcher, maybe Buck thinks this current pitching staff will eventually turn into an ace rotation, but I just don't see that happening.  And it would be nice for these young arms to have someone to mentor them.

Pitching: Here's the projected starting rotation with last year's stats:

1. Jeremy Guthrie 11-14, 3.83 ERA, 119 SO, 25 HR
2. Brain Matusz 10-12, 4.30 ERA, 132 SO, 19 HR
3. Jake Arrieta 6-6, 4.66 ERA, 52 SO, 9 HR
4. Brad Bergesen 8-12, 4.98 ERA, 81 SO, 26 HR
5. Chris Tilman  2-5, 5.87 ERA, 31 SO, 9 HR

Jeremy Guthrie is the oldest pitcher on the rotation at the age of 31.  Sorry  Guthrie, but you shouldn't be labeled as the top teams ace on any MLB team.  I've seen Guthrie struggle year in and year out since he has been with the Orioles; maybe he will finally break out this year.  The rest of the pitching staff is young and will definitely go through their bumps alot this year.  The one bright spot is that Matusz did lead starters in strikeouts last year and could eventually be the teams future ace.  Expect this staff to struggle alot this year with the likes of the bats of the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays being in the same division as the O's.

Bullpen:

CL	RHP	Kevin Gregg
CL	RHP	Koji Uehara
SU	RHP	Jim Johnson
SU	LHP	Michael Gonzalez
MI	RHP	Jeremy Accardo
MI	RHP	Josh Rupe
MI	RHP	Jason Berken
MI	RHP	Brad Bergesen

Koji Uehara returns from injury along with Micahel Gonzalez, Jason Berken and Jim Johnson who were also hurt alot last year.  With Alfredo Simon gone, Uehara will step into the closer role this year. Uehara was 1-2 with with 13 saves, 55 stikeouts and 5 homers give up this year.  Uehara is 35 so he will not be in future plans of the Orioles so some of this young bullpen guys will have to step up this year.  The blowpen I mean bullpen lost the O's multiple games last year and there maybe more of the same this year from the bullpen.

Batting: Projected batting order with last years stats:

1	2B	Brian Roberts .249, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 94 SO
2	RF	Nick Markakis .297, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 93 SO
3	1B	Derrek Lee .260, 19 HR, 80 RBI, 134 SO (with Cubs and Braves)
4	DH	Vladimir Guerrero .300, 29 HR, 115 RBI, 60 SO (with Texas)
5	LF	Luke Scott .284, 27 HR, 72 RBI, 98 SO
6	CF	Adam Jones .284, 19 HR, 69 RBI, 119 SO
7	3B	Mark Reynolds .198, 32 HR, 85 RBI, 211 SO ( with Arizona)
8	C	Matt Wieters .249, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 94 SO
9	SS	J.J. Hardy .268, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 54 SO (with Minnesota)

As long as this lineup can stay healthy this is going to be a fun offense to watch this year, but Derrek Lee is up there in age along with Vlady and Reynolds was hurt alot last year.  O yea don't forget Brain Roberts is injured every 2 weeks.  The Orioles offense is the key to how successful the team will be this year as the pitching staff is a little young, if the bats get going then this team will be successful, if the bats are cold then hello 5th place again.  Expect Adam Jones, Matt Wieters and JJ hardy to have better years this year and be ready on Eutaw St to catch homers from D-Lee and Vlady.  Luke Scott, who I feel is underrated, should be getting alot of at bats as teams will most likely rather pitch to him rather than pitch to Vlad.  Scott should have 30 homers this year.

Season Prediction:
With decent pitching, and as long as the batting lineup can stay healthy I can see this year's team could reach the 500 mark ending the 13 straight losing seasons streak.  The one problem is that the O's play in one of the toughest divisions in baseball, the Sox are many people's picks to win the world series, we all know what the Yankees have, despite losing some players the Rays are going to be competitive, and who knows that the Blue Jays will do.  Buck is going to have to work more magic with the pitching staff this year and I only see that happening with Matusz.  The O's could possibly make some trades to get more pitching, but there is no one right now in the minor leagues that could be used as trade bait. There's going to be injuries and that's just part of a 162 game season, when those injuries happen the question is going to be who steps up?  Maybe someone form the minors will step up and make a name for themselves.  With all things being considered I'm going with a 4th place finish for the O's but in this division 500 may mean 4th place.