Buck Has the Boys in Line, but Will it be Enough to Compete?

In case if you haven't heard, Buck Showalter is the new manager of the Baltimore Orioles and went 34-23 when he took over the O's last August and a .596 winning percentage which was good enough for the best record  in the AL from the the time Buck took over till the end of the season.  Now the question is can Buck push the O's to a winning record for the whole season?  Alot of the self proclaimed baseball experts I talk to say a manager doesn't affect a baseball team that much.  Well I think taking a team that was in the bottom of the division around a .300 winning percentage to a winning record in a matter of two months means that the manager has an effect on the team.  Now I'm not saying that Buck on his own is going to turn Jeremy Guthrie into a Cy Young winner, though that would be awesome, nor is he going to turn Adam Jones into a batting title winner, also would be awesome, but I think what needs to be taken away from last season is that players want to play for Buck and are motivated to play well now.  I don't think you are going to see Adam Jones half assing it down the first base line or on a ball played to center field, because Jones knows that if he does that now there's going to be a foot up his ass from Buck.  Also with Buck, the organization now has a sense of direction to go in, for the past 13 years I've never been sure what direction the organization was going in besides losing.

Offseason: This past offseason the O's added some pop to there lineup with the additions of Mark Reynolds, Derek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero.  Going into the start of the 2010 season the 13 position players on the opening day roster had a combined 896 career homeruns. This year the 13 position players on the roster have a combined 1,349 homers.  My only compliant about this offseason was the O's did not get a pitcher, maybe Buck thinks this current pitching staff will eventually turn into an ace rotation, but I just don't see that happening.  And it would be nice for these young arms to have someone to mentor them.

Pitching: Here's the projected starting rotation with last year's stats:

1. Jeremy Guthrie 11-14, 3.83 ERA, 119 SO, 25 HR
2. Brain Matusz 10-12, 4.30 ERA, 132 SO, 19 HR
3. Jake Arrieta 6-6, 4.66 ERA, 52 SO, 9 HR
4. Brad Bergesen 8-12, 4.98 ERA, 81 SO, 26 HR
5. Chris Tilman  2-5, 5.87 ERA, 31 SO, 9 HR

Jeremy Guthrie is the oldest pitcher on the rotation at the age of 31.  Sorry  Guthrie, but you shouldn't be labeled as the top teams ace on any MLB team.  I've seen Guthrie struggle year in and year out since he has been with the Orioles; maybe he will finally break out this year.  The rest of the pitching staff is young and will definitely go through their bumps alot this year.  The one bright spot is that Matusz did lead starters in strikeouts last year and could eventually be the teams future ace.  Expect this staff to struggle alot this year with the likes of the bats of the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays being in the same division as the O's.

Bullpen:

CL	RHP	Kevin Gregg
CL	RHP	Koji Uehara
SU	RHP	Jim Johnson
SU	LHP	Michael Gonzalez
MI	RHP	Jeremy Accardo
MI	RHP	Josh Rupe
MI	RHP	Jason Berken
MI	RHP	Brad Bergesen

Koji Uehara returns from injury along with Micahel Gonzalez, Jason Berken and Jim Johnson who were also hurt alot last year.  With Alfredo Simon gone, Uehara will step into the closer role this year. Uehara was 1-2 with with 13 saves, 55 stikeouts and 5 homers give up this year.  Uehara is 35 so he will not be in future plans of the Orioles so some of this young bullpen guys will have to step up this year.  The blowpen I mean bullpen lost the O's multiple games last year and there maybe more of the same this year from the bullpen.

Batting: Projected batting order with last years stats:

1	2B	Brian Roberts .249, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 94 SO
2	RF	Nick Markakis .297, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 93 SO
3	1B	Derrek Lee .260, 19 HR, 80 RBI, 134 SO (with Cubs and Braves)
4	DH	Vladimir Guerrero .300, 29 HR, 115 RBI, 60 SO (with Texas)
5	LF	Luke Scott .284, 27 HR, 72 RBI, 98 SO
6	CF	Adam Jones .284, 19 HR, 69 RBI, 119 SO
7	3B	Mark Reynolds .198, 32 HR, 85 RBI, 211 SO ( with Arizona)
8	C	Matt Wieters .249, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 94 SO
9	SS	J.J. Hardy .268, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 54 SO (with Minnesota)

As long as this lineup can stay healthy this is going to be a fun offense to watch this year, but Derrek Lee is up there in age along with Vlady and Reynolds was hurt alot last year.  O yea don't forget Brain Roberts is injured every 2 weeks.  The Orioles offense is the key to how successful the team will be this year as the pitching staff is a little young, if the bats get going then this team will be successful, if the bats are cold then hello 5th place again.  Expect Adam Jones, Matt Wieters and JJ hardy to have better years this year and be ready on Eutaw St to catch homers from D-Lee and Vlady.  Luke Scott, who I feel is underrated, should be getting alot of at bats as teams will most likely rather pitch to him rather than pitch to Vlad.  Scott should have 30 homers this year.

Season Prediction:
With decent pitching, and as long as the batting lineup can stay healthy I can see this year's team could reach the 500 mark ending the 13 straight losing seasons streak.  The one problem is that the O's play in one of the toughest divisions in baseball, the Sox are many people's picks to win the world series, we all know what the Yankees have, despite losing some players the Rays are going to be competitive, and who knows that the Blue Jays will do.  Buck is going to have to work more magic with the pitching staff this year and I only see that happening with Matusz.  The O's could possibly make some trades to get more pitching, but there is no one right now in the minor leagues that could be used as trade bait. There's going to be injuries and that's just part of a 162 game season, when those injuries happen the question is going to be who steps up?  Maybe someone form the minors will step up and make a name for themselves.  With all things being considered I'm going with a 4th place finish for the O's but in this division 500 may mean 4th place.

Nationals Have Bright Future, but will This Season be Bright???

The Washington Nationals come into this years season with multiple questions at pitching and will feature a batting lineup that some say will be a little bit weaker than last year with letting Adam Dunn.  The Nats went through a some what interesting off season.  First was then GM Stan Kasten leaving and Mike Rizzo taking over in that same position.  For those of you that don't remember Stan Kasten was the GM that built the Atlanta Braves into what they were in the 1990's.  That was very encouraging to me as Kasten looked like he was going to do the same here in DC.  Kasten stepping down is a huge red flag to me, because that means that Kasten may have not been getting along with the Learners.  Kasten isn't the type of GM that will step down right in the middle of the rebuilding process and with future looking bright.  This tells me that the Learners may be wanting hands on in alot of the player personal decisions the team makes a la Dan Snyder.  Which brings me to Adam Dunn.

Why would let the team leader in homers and RBI walk away??? Granted he is hot and cold, strikesout a lot, and his getting old in age.  But Adam Dunn could've stuck around here in DC and help mentor this young team.  A lot of the players last year said that Dunn was the reason why the team was so close and was basically like a family last year.  Why would you want to mess comradery up like that?  From experience and from watching pro teams, the teams that tend to be most successful are close to each other in the locker room, no homo. It's going to be interesting to see if the Nats still have that comradery this year with Dunn gone.

The other big off season story was the signing of Jayson Werth to a 7 year $126 million contract.  Its good that the Learners are willing to spend money, but like Dan Snyder money was spent in the wrong place.  What happened to the "we don't want to sign Adam Dunn to a long term contract because of his age" type of thinking.  Werth and Dunn are the same age 31.  I can easily see Werth possibly turning into a Hayneworth situation because of all of the money the Nats are going to pay him, but time will tell.

Ok, enough of my bitching from the offseason, the team is what it is.  On to what to expect from this year's team.

Pitching:
With Stephen Strasburg not expected to be back from Tommy John surgery until August or September, there is alot of questions with this pitching staff from starters to closers.  Here's what the projected starting rotation will be with the players stats from last year

1	RHP	Livan Hernandez 10-12, 3.66 ERA, 114 SO, 16 HR
2	LHP	John Lannan 8-8, 4.65 ERA, 71 SO, 14 HR
3	RHP	Jordan Zimmermann 1-2, 4.94 ERA, 27 SO, 8 HR
4	RHP	Jason Marquis 2-9, 6.60 ERA, 31 SO, 9 HR
5	LHP	Tom Gorzelanny 7-9, 4.09 ERA, 119 SO, 11 HR, (with Chicago Cubs)

Livan Hernandez is 36 so its going to be a question of how long his body can hold up and if his arm can once again take the bumps and bruises of a long baseball season. Especially since Hernandez tends to pitch a lot of innings, I'm not sure if his body can take that any more.  Hernandez is good to have around though to mentor the young pitchers.  John Lannan is at the age were he should be reaching the prime of his career so with enough bullpen support Lannan has the potential to win 10 games, but will most likely be around 8 wins again this year.  Joradan Zimmermann is in the same boat as Laannan, but I think still has some growing to do, Zimmerman could also have a breakout year.  Jason Marquis only started 13 games last year due to injury and it showed, if some of the young arms begin to blossom in AAA ball I wont be surprised if one will take Marquis' spot in the rotation later in the year.  Tom Grozelanny had a decent season with the Cubs last year and his bascially in the down of his career from what I think.  Grozelanny will also Hernandez in mentoring Lannan and Zimmerman.

Bullpen and Closers:

	SU LHP Tyler Clippard SU LHP Todd Coffey MI RHP Chad Gaudin MI RHP Brian Broderick MI RHP Doug Slaten
Closer: Drew Storen
	Closer: Doug Slaten
	Drew Storen will be the main closer and Tyler Clippard will be the main set up man.  Storen stepped into the closer in the middle of last year and went 4-4 with 5 saves.  Storen is supposed to be the Nats closer for a long time to come and looked pretty good last year and will most likely build from what he accomplished last year.  Clippard went 11-8 with 1 save last year.  Clippard is also a young pitcher that the Nats have high hopes for.  Clippards high amount of wins is due to the teams biggest weakness, the middle relievers.  The middle relievers is alot of the reason why the Nationals lost alot leads and games last year and will be there alchies heel again this year.
	Bating:
	1 SS Ian Desmond .269, 10 HR, 65 RBI, 109 SO 2 RF Jayson Werth .296, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 147 SO (with Philly) 3 3B Ryan Zimmerman .307, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 98 SO 4 1B Adam LaRoche .261, 25 HR, 100 RBI 172 SO (with Arizona Diamondbacks) 5 LF Michael Morse .289, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 64 SO 6 CF Rick Ankiel .232 6 HR, 24 RBI, 71 SO (with Atlanta and Kansas City) 7 2B Danny Espinosa .214, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 30 SO 8 C Ivan Rodriguez .266, 4 HR, 49 RBI, 66 SO
	9 Picther

 You know what you are going get in Ryan Zimmerman, he's a .300 batting average guy and should get 20 home runs every year.  Ian Desmond is still developing and should continue to make strides.  Jayson Werth is basically going to be Adam Dunn's replacement we'll see if the money goes to his head.  LaRoche is in his 30's butt still seems to be producing which is why he's perfect for the clean up spot. Rick Ankiel, the pitcher turned fielder has bounced around alot since leaving St. Louis a few years ago and if he's having a good year don't be surprised if he becomes trade bait at the deadline.  Overall the offense should be were it was last year maybe even better.  Zimmerman would be easily considered a star in the league if the teams was in the playoffs and Werth does have that veteran leadership for the offenses.   

Season Prediction:
Unfortunately, it looks like to be another long year down on South Capitol street.  The young pitching and the lack of a solid bullpen will cost the Nats again as it has in the past, while the offense will produce runs once again.  The Nats are also a victim of being in a good division with the Phillies and Braves.  If the Nats were in the NL central or AL west they could possibly be near the .500 mark, but they are not and have to keep on working towards the future if they are to compete with the Phillies and Braves.  Nats could possibly top the Marlins for 4th place in the division, but I think it'll be a "good" battle to between the Nats and Marlins for 4th and 5th.   

Spring Preview: Questions on Defense and How will the New Offense Work

When classes resume in Morgantown, on Monday, the football team will begin there work on the 2011 season with the start of spring practice.  The start of spring practice marks the start of a new offensive era with new offensive coordinator, and head coach in waiting, Dana Holgorsen from Oklahoma State.  Holgorsen brings in an air it out spread offense, which could work well for QB Geno Smith.  On the other side of the ball, Jeff Casteel is faced with the daunting task of replacing 7 starters on a defensive that was ranked 3rd in the country.  With a new offense to learn and multiple stars to replace on defense the Mountaineers better be focused this spring if they want to be sucessfull in 2011.  Here's what to look out for during spring ball.

Offense:
 The most obvious focus on offense will be how the unit takes in the new spread offense that will actually allow Geno Smith to throw the ball down field instead of bubble screens every other play.  Brad Starks will be leading a young receiving core that will include Ivan McCartney, Quinton Spain and Stedman Bailey.  These WR's should enjoy the multiple 4 wide and 5 wide sets that Holgorsen has but they have to learn the system first which can be challenging for a young receiving core.

Replacing Noel Devine and Jock Sanders will be tough, but maybe not so.  Shawne Alston and Tavon Austin seem like they can fill the holes left by Noel and Jock and seemed like that was what Bill Stewart was training Shawne and Tavon to do.  Later in the season, last year, Tavon saw alot of playing time at slot while Shawne was at the RB spot while Devine was hurt. Shawne Alston had 248 rushing yards in 256 minutes of game time last year, while Tavon was second on the team with receptions and first in receiving TDs.

Defense:
Gone are Robert Sands, Brandon Hogan, JT Thomas, Chris Neild, Scooter Berry, Anthony Lenoard, Pat Lazer and Sidney Glover.  Robert Sands obviously will be missed the most as he could take away half the field at any point and was feared by QB's when coming in on the blitz. Also in the secondary, tough to replace will be team INT leader Brandon Hogan who made major strides between his junior and senior years.  As of now the only sure replacements will be Terrance Garvin at the Rover Safety, Julilan Miller will be at DT, fan favorite Bruce Irvin should be a full time DE and Pat Miller will be a starting CB. Miller got burned really bad twice in the Maryland game last year so hopefully he improves on that.  Troy Gloster could be a possible replacement at LB as he has gained 24 pounds this off season, but will see competition from others.

In the spring game look for how the offense is adjusting to the new system.  Is Geno making the right reads? Do the WR's understand there routes and are they running the crossing routes right.  Is the offensive line getting the blocking schemes down?  On defense its simple.  Who steps up and makes there name known to the coaches to earn a starting spot? 

WVU Begins Big East Title Defense

On Wednesday night WVU will begin its quest to repeat as Big East tournament champs.  WVU was able to earn a first round bye and will play the winner of Marquette and Providence.  The Mountaineers come into the tourney on a 3 game win streak including two straight wins over ranked opponents.  At seems like Coach Huggins has his team hitting there peak at the right time.  In some of WVU's most recent wins,Joe Mazzulla has produced has he scored 18 points in the UConn win and 16 points in the Notre Dame win.  Because of this production, from Mazzula, Huggins has decided that Mazzula should be running the offense from point guard spot instead of junior Truck Bryant.  This is a bonus for the Mountaineers as they now have two guards that are fully capable of running the offense this March.   The Mountaineers biggest problem has been these random scoring droughts they go through.  The periods where there is a lack of scoring has cost WVU wins at Louisville and at Shittsburgh, I mean Pittsburgh.  If WVU can avoid these scoring droughts and Casey Mitchell doesn't hit a cold streak this week WVU can make a deep run.

Prediction:  WVU's side of the bracket is very favorable for a deep run and I say a semi final loss to Notre Dame is were WVU's run end this year in the tourney.  If WVU wins against Providence/Marquette the blue and gold will play Louisville on Thursday and with a win against the Cardinals, WVU will play Notre Dame in the semi finals.  If it weren't for the lack of scoring in the 2nd half in Louisville, WVU would've swept the Cardinals. WVU should be able to able to beat L'ville but as usual it won't be easy. 

WVU just doesn't have the leadership they had last year to win the tournament.  Its been a question all year who take the last shot? and this year this isn't one answer, its just who is ever hot that night and that will cost them against the top 15 teams this tournament season. But one player can get hot, example Casey Mitchell who knows maybe the Mountaineers will be able to repeat as tourney champs, but this is the Big East and there is just to much depth this year for the 'eers to win.

Redskins Sign OJ Atogwe

After releasing Andre Carter, in what I think is a horrible move, the Redskins made a somewhat decent move by signing 29 year old FS OJ Atogwe from the St. Louis Rams.  Atogwe has 22 career int's and 339 career tackles.  Last year he had 3 int's and 64 tackles averaging 8 per game.  This move will somewhat solidify the FS spot has Reed Doughty and Chris Horton have continually showed they can not play this position in the NFL. Averaging 8 tackles a game, last year, Atogwe has shown he is a solid open field tackler and has the athleticism to cover receivers deep, but will get burned every now and then.  While Kevin Barnes played well at this position, his natural position is CB, so adding Atogwe while knowing Barnes can play safety adds depth at this position.   While this seems like a good move Atogwe is 29 and will most likely not be able to fill this role in about 2 to 3 years.  What I thought the Skins should've done was draft Robert Sands the 6'5 221 lb safety from West Virginia.  Sands is basically another Sean Taylor, but of course not as good.  Sands has great range and is basically a LB playing safety like Sean Taylor and can hit like Sean Taylor.  Atogwe will be good for now, but definitely should not be in the long term plans for the Burgundy and Gold.

Redskins Release Clinton Portis and Andre Carter

Coach Mike Shanahan and GM Bruce Allan, have decided to get rid of some of the old regimes players, but some of the moves still have me thinking that good old Dan Snyder still has some control over the organization and some of these moves continue to show the new coaching staff's stubbornness.

Lets start off with the good moves, gone is RB Clinton Portis and G Derrick Dockery.  Portis spent 7 years with the Redskins rushing for 6,824 yards and 49 TD's.  Good enough for 2nd all time in Redskins history only behind hall of famer, John Riggins.  He started off his career as a fan favorite to most of the fans base and rushed for over 1,000 yards 4 times as a Redskins.  After the 2008 season, the toll of being a NFL running back wore off as the past two years Portis has suffered from multiple injuries.  Due to Portis sitting out, his fan club began to decline in DC as many started to question his toughness.  Portis will be mostly likely remembered for his multiple 1,000 yard seasons in DC, his pass blocking skills which is rare in a NFL running back these days and of course his multiple characters he dressed up in on media day at Redskins Park.  Despite that it was time to go for CP not only had the fans turned against him, but he had multiple run ins with Jim Zorn and of course we all remember the confrontation CP got in with Doc Walker on the John Thompson show.  I believe that Ryan Torain and Keiland Williams showed this year that they can fulfill the role at RB just fine.

The Skins also released LG Derrick Dockery, Dockery played 6 seasons for the Skins and showed his toughness as he played in 85 games and started 79 of them.  Dockery was replaced by 25 year old Kory Lichtensteiger as Shanahan thought that Lichtensteiger fit his system better as Dockery only started 2 games this year.  Lichtensteiger made many typical young lineman mistakes, but we'll see what he becomes over the next few years.

Now to the move that pisses me off, Andre Carter. I think everyone in the organization is to blame for this. One this seems like a typical Dan Snyder a la Ryan Clarke, two Bruce Allan for letting this happen and 3 Mike Shanahan and Jim Hasslet for being so stubborn by having the mentality of my way or the high way.  This team is built for the 4-3 not the 3-4.  Just look at Andre Carter's stats 11 sacks in the 2009 season when he was a DE in a 4-3 defense and in the 3-4 this year 2.5 sacks.  Also why all of a sudden did Hasslet think he can run a 3-4? He has always ran a 4-3.  Hasslet has to work with the players he has, Orakpo and Carter fed off of each other last year in the 4-3 and didn't at all this past season in the 3-4.  Orakpo stats also went down this year, now that could have been because other teams now have film on him, but its also because Orakpo, along with everyone else, is better suited for the 43.  Bruce Allan better hope that Von Miller is still available when its our turn to draft or else Orakpo and the rest of the D is going to suffer greatly from this.  This just shows that this coaching staff would rather have it there way than rather win and that is not fair to the players or fans.  The great coaches are able to change the game plan to put players in the best position to win, that has not been seen from this coaching staff and if it continues we maybe looking at another coaching change once again. 

Dan Snyder said he was going to change, the move of letting Andre Carter go shows that nothing has changed at all.  Snyder lets the good players walk and always overpays the players that don't deserve the money.  Actions speak louder than words Mr. Snyder and once your actions have proved why you should not be running a football team.  

PS: Please don't sue me for that last paragraph since it hurts your feelings.